National carbon budgets: the UK experience and prospects for Ukraine
At COP30, experts discussed how countries can use carbon budgets to achieve climate neutrality and why this is important for Ukraine even during wartime.
At an event during COP30 organized by the Green Transition Office, leading international experts and Ukrainian specialists discussed the role of national carbon budgets in achieving climate neutrality. The discussion was moderated by Lennard de Klerk, representative of the Initiative of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accounting of War.
The discussion was opened by Prof. Stephen Sitch, professor in Physical Geography at the University of Exeter and a representative of the Global Carbon Project, who presented the recently released new data from the Global Carbon Budget 2025.
"The main conclusion is not a good message. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise and, according to 2025 data, have increased by 1.1% to 38.1 billion tons of CO2 per year," – Professor Sitch noted. – "The good news is that 35 countries, representing 25% of global emissions, have managed to reduce them while simultaneously growing their economies."
To avoid global warming of more than 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels, humanity has only 170 billion tons of CO2 left in its carbon budget. At current emission rates, this remaining carbon budget would be exhausted in about 4 years. To avoid global warming of more than 2 degrees, the remaining carbon budget is 1,055 billion tons of CO2, which at current levels is equivalent to emissions over approximately 25 years.
Given the rapidly shrinking global carbon budget, the experience of countries that have already implemented effective decarbonization measures is particularly valuable.
Although national carbon budgets use different approaches and definitions compared to the global carbon budget, they also demonstrate the level of emissions that must be adhered to in order to achieve a specific long-term goal, such as achieving climate neutrality by mid-century.
Professor Piers Forster, UK Climate Change Committee member, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures and Professor of Physical Climate Change at the University of Leeds, spoke about the British model of carbon budgets – five-year CO2-equivalent emission limits that form the trajectory for achieving climate neutrality.
The success of the British model lies in the fact that, in accordance with the law, carbon budgets become legally binding commitments once approved, regardless of changes in political parties, creating long-term certainty for businesses and stimulating investment in low-carbon development.
The UK Climate Change Committee has done a massive amount of work to convince the Government and other stakeholders of the achievability and economic viability of the Seventh Carbon Budget – an 81% emission reduction target by 2035 compared to 1990.
"A striking confirmation of the effectiveness of national carbon budgets is the fact that since their introduction, the rate of emissions reduction in the UK has doubled. We have already reduced emissions by more than 50% and are now reducing them by about 4-5% annually," – emphasized Professor Piers Forster. – "Achieving the Seventh Carbon Budget, however, will be more challenging as, for the first time, it takes into account the long-term goal of achieving climate neutrality. The UK Climate Change Committee continuously monitors progress toward carbon budget targets and recommends additional policies to the Government if the target becomes at risk."
The implementation of ambitious climate goals requires not only political will but also significant financial resources. Gianpiero Nacci, Managing Director of Climate Strategy and Delivery at the EBRD, spoke about how international financial organizations are supporting Ukraine's green transition even during the wartime. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the EBRD has significantly increased its support for Ukraine and continues to develop new financing programs in partnership with the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation (IFC).
"The Ukrainian authorities have always paid considerable attention to maintain the course to achieve the goals set out in climate policies and energy strategies. The direction has not changed, although the means of achieving results must take into account the impact of the war," – commented Gianpiero Nacci. – "While providing important support during the war, we must also think about the future: supporting sustainable energy systems, sustainable agricultural practices, and efficient logistics."
Despite the war, Ukraine is actively working on developing its climate policy. Mykola Shlapak, a Climate Change and Climate Policy Expert at the Green Transition Office and the NGO DIXI GROUP, spoke about Ukrainian initiatives to develop a national carbon budget.
In the area of climate policy Ukraine will face a unique challenge over the next decade, as the key task for Ukraine would be not GHG emission reduction per se but low carbon and climate resilient post-war economic recovery. During the war total GHG emissions reported in national inventories decreased by 32% due to economic downturn, destruction of infrastructure and enterprises, and large numbers of people fleeing the country. As of 2023, emissions were only 24% of 1990 levels equal to a 76% reduction compared to 1990. At the same time, total investment in restoration and reconstruction at the end of the last year was estimated at over €500 billion, which will inevitably lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions from their current low levels.
“We need to have a clear understanding of current and future greenhouse gas emission levels in different sectors in order to make informed decisions and enable the transition to low-carbon development and the achievement of long-term goals, including the recently updated NDC 2 target and the climate neutrality target,” – Mykola Shlapak emphasized. – "Moreover, given the active movement towards European integration, Ukraine will need to accelerate decarbonisation in key sectors on its path to EU accession and as a future member of the European Union. Detailed information on the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by sector will also be necessary for the implementation of EU climate policies into national legislation."
The Green Transition Office is working on sectoral decarbonization studies for key sectors of Ukraine's economy and plans to develop a national carbon budget following the example of the UK.
The Green Transition Office's approach to developing a national carbon budget consists of three stages:
- preparing sectoral decarbonization studies, which will provide information about the achievable emission reductions volumes and associated costs;
- building a marginal abatement cost curve for the entire economy based on sectoral decarbonization studies to determine the economic feasibility of various technologies and measures;
- developing a general national carbon budget for the medium term.
“We plan to complete the development of sectoral studies and present the first national carbon budget in 2-3 years, followed by regular updates and improvements. This document will contain greenhouse gas emission targets for each sector and a description of how to achieve them,” – concluded Mykola Shlapak.
The panel discussion demonstrated that national carbon budgets can be an effective tool for translating global climate goals into concrete national actions. For Ukraine, the development of such a budget is particularly important in the context of large-scale post-war recovery. The policy and investment decisions being made now will determine the country's emissions trajectory for decades to come.
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